A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
