Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.